PAPER TRADING TRADE SETUP FOR THE DATE 31.05.2018

ACTION	SCRIPT	TIME	RATE	TARGET	STOPLOSS
BUY	STERTECH	EOD	331-333	365	321
BUY	BALMLAWRIE	EOD	234-236	283	227
BUY	JSWENERGY	EOD	83-84	97	80.5
BUY	NBVENTURES	EOD	161-163	183	156.15
BUY	TIMKEN	EOD	748-751	995	725
BUY	SAIL	EOD	80-81	97	77.6
BUY	TORNTPOWER	EOD	257-258	307	249.3

Q4 Corporate results to determine market’s direction

The performance of benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty have been flat in the last one month. The S&P BSE Sensex moved up 211 points or 0.6% to 34,925 from a level of 34,714 as on 26 April 2018 while, on the other hand, wider Nifty 50 index 12.65 points or 0.12% to 10,605.15 from a level of 10,617.8. The domestic equity markets have seen volatile sessions specifically in the last one month as the fourth-quarter earnings unfolded following which investors saw PNB reporting the biggest quarterly loss by any bank ever in the Indian history. 

Going ahead, in the beginning May 28^th, 2018, the domestic markets are likely to be steered by Q4 earnings with over 700 companies set to report their respective fourth-quarter financial report card. Other events that will drive the markets will be GDP data for the period of January-March 2018, crude oil prices, rupee value against US dollar and settlement of India dated securities amounting to not more than Rs 12,000 crore auctioned by RBI.

Major firms scheduled to announce their results are NTPC, Oil India, Dredging Corporation of India, Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank, Piramal Enterprises, NMDC, Coal India, Dilip Buildcon, Hindustan Copper, ONGC, Berger Paints and others.

The settlement of RBI’s Rs 12,000 crore auction of India dated securities will take place on 28 May. The move is likely to see a spike in demand of rupee which may result in appreciation of the domestic currency against the US dollar. The rupee logged the biggest single-day gain on May 25^th, Friday surging as much as 56 paise against the US dollar. Crude oil prices have fallen for three straight sessions with Brent crude slipping below $77 per barrel mark after it breached $80 level in the last week.

Volatility may be seen with derivatives expiry on Thursday. GDP growth rate data on May 31^st would also steer market movements.

Last week, both the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty made small gains on the back of attractive valuations, as well as a fall in global crude oil prices and appreciation in the rupee. Consequently, the Sensex rose by 76.57 points or 0.22 per cent to close at 34,924.87 points on a weekly basis. Similarly, the Nifty closed the week on a slightly positive note, at 10,605.15 points, up 8.75 points or 0.08 per cent.

Further upsides in NSE Nifty are likely once the immediate resistance of 10,628 points is taken out. Crucial supports to watch for resumption of weakness is at 10,417 points.

Posted by Digamber Lokhande

PAPER TRADING TRADE SETUP FOR THE DATE 24.05.2018

ACTION	SCRIPT	TIME	RATE	TARGET	STOPLOSS
BUY	BLS	EOD	185-186	280	179.5
BUY	SBIN	EOD	271-273	332	262

Markets, technically in reversal mode

This week beginning May 21^st could see domestic stock markets being impacted by rise in petroleum prices, movement of crude oil and its impact on inflation and trade deficit. Besides earnings from blue chips such as SBI and Cipla are also to be announced this week. The impact of the Karnataka political outcome will be short-lived. The last week was marked by the political developments in Karnataka, which saw fall of the three-day-old BJP government on Saturday minutes before the scheduled trust vote.  The immediate concern to the market will be the impact of crude at $80 on inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and GDP growth rate. If crude continues to rise and cross $85 expect markets to react negatively and some sell-offs to happen.

Also observed will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and the US jobs data to get some cues on interest rate hike trajectory. Stock specific action may be seen in view of corporate results scheduled for this week. Other major earnings this week are from Dr Reddy, Jet Airways, Tata Motors and Gail.

In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrips worth Rs. 1,496.79 crore during the trade week ended May 18. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested equities worth Rs. 799.88 crore, or $117.63 million as per the data of National Securities Depository (NSDL).

Technical charts showed the National Stock Exchange's (NSE) Nifty50 in a downtrend. With the Nifty ending lower for the fourth consecutive session and closing below the short term trend reversal levels of 10,630 points, the underlying uptrend has reversed. The coming week could see further downsides towards 10,514 points and lower. On the upside bounces, 10,692 points-level can offer resistance. Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE declined by 687.49 points or 1.93 per cent to 34,848.30 points. Similarly, the wider NSE Nifty50 edged-lower. It ended at 10,596.40 points -- down 210.1 points or 1.94 per cent -- from its previous close.

Experts believe the Indian economy is in the beginning of an economic recovery, but there are thick headwinds for domestic equity markets going ahead and another phase of correction is likely. Approaching elections, elevated bond yields, emerging market currency weakness and deteriorating current account is likely to keep Indian markets under check. The Nifty is likely to trade near the 10,000 level in the short term and as we approach FY19 end.

PAPER TRADING TRADE SETUP FOR THE DATE 18.05.2018

ACTION	SCRIPT	TIME	RATE	TARGET	STOPLOSS
BUY	FEL	EOD	45-46	54	43.65
BUY	BODALCHEM	EOD	138-139	175	133
BUY	BLS	EOD	174-175	293	168.5

Market’s underlying trend firm but all eyes on Karnataka election outcome

This week, the domestic markets will be highly impacted by the outcome of Karnataka Elections 2018 and major corporate earnings scheduled. Companies such HUL, RCom, Britannia Industries, fraud-hit PNB, Lupin, TVS Motor Company, ITC, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Voltas and Bajaj Auto will declare their results.

Market will be eyeing the macroeconomic data with WPI numbers for food, fuel, manufacturing, inflation and inflation (CPI) along balance of trade. Again on Tuesday, 15 May 2018, a heightened volatility and liquidity may be seen in Indian equity and forex markets as three major things scheduled for the single day- Karnataka Elections 2018 results; Q4 results of scam-hit Punjab National Bank; the balance of trade data will be announced. Other influencing factors this week are expected to be global cues such as volatility in global crude oil prices which will also impact investors' risk-taking appetite. The next phase of results will be crucial as any deviation will create further downgrades. Surging oil prices and weak INR are expected to impact inflation while easing geopolitical tension will add fuel to the market.

Domestic equity markets have been mostly rising for more than a month irrespective of FPI’s exiting the stocks on the back of revival in the Q4 results with relatively positive global cues. The BSE Sensex  and NSE Nifty have risen 8 to 9% in the course of the last one-half-and-month.

In terms of investments, last week's provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrips worth Rs 2,126.74 crore. Similarly, figures from the NSE revealed that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested equities worth Rs 2,678.35 crore, or $399.75 million, in the week ended May 11.

Conversely, on technical charts, the underlying trend for the National Stock Exchange's (NSE) Nifty remains firm with the Nifty surging higher and closing above the 10,800 points levels.Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 10,878 points is taken out. Crucial supports to watch for any weakness are at 10,635 points.

Last week, healthy Q4 earnings and positive global cues including easing tensions between the US and North Korea lifted the key Indian equity indices. However, caution prevailed ahead of the assembly elections. On a weekly basis, the barometer 30-scrip BSE Sensex rose by 620.41 points or 1.78 per cent to close at 35,535.79 points. The NSE Nifty ended last week at 10,806.50 points, up 188.25 points or 1.77 per cent from its previous week's close.

PAPER TRADING TRADE SETUP  FOR THE DATE 14.05.2018

ACTION	SCRIPT	TIME	RATE	TARGET	STOPLOSS
BUY	WELSPUNIND	EOD	67-68	82	65

PAPER TRADING TRADE SETUP FOR THE DATE 04.05.2018

ACTION	SCRIPT	TIME	RATE	TARGET	STOPLOSS
BUY	CROMPTON	EOD	248-250	295	242.5

PAPER TRADING TRADE SETUP FOR THE DATE 04.05.2018

ACTION	SCRIPT	TIME	RATE	TARGET	STOPLOSS
BUY	SUNPHARMA	EOD	541-545	608	525